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Thursday, May 26, 2005

By Ralf Seiffe

OPINION - I had planned on a different subject today but the “compromise” worked out by the Senate’s new caucus is too much to ignore.

It’s worth a comment because the compromise may destroy the United States Senate as we know it and it may reveal the self-immolation of several Republican Party presidential hopefuls before our very eyes.

Conventional wisdom accretes the benefits of the agreement to the Democrats. The seven Republican senators who helped author the compromise have ceded the minority party control of the Senate for the remaining 18 eighteen months of the 109th Congress and, in doing so, they have cast the Republican victory in 2004 onto the trash heap.

Not so. To avoid voting over the filibuster, the seven and seven have essentially formed a new caucus I’d call the Social Democrats.

By creating the caucus, however, they have destroyed the Senate’s 214 year history of bipartisan operations by transforming it into a tripartisan chamber.

Social Democrats are Republicans, who crave the increase in social standing opposing their party’s core principles brings from the conventional media.

For Democrats, it’s the necessity of moving from the lunatic left to win reelection. The benefit for both is that joining the Social Democrats gets them in the papers and invitations to the Sunday talk shows.

Immediately, this new fourteen member caucus substitutes its own obstructionism for Harry Reid’s. By deciding what “extraordinary circumstances” are, the caucus does the work of the far left-wing Democrats legitimizing and immunizing their kook senators.

Longer term, the Social Democrat caucus will begin to realize they have carved out a very powerful position that transforms the Senate into a body that looks more like a parliament.

Like those dysfunctional legislatures in most of the world, this small group can trump the agenda of the majority. The Social Democrats caucus reeks of a power-play which leaves the Democrats smiling.

As I see it, Republicans fail to realize that winning issues makes them stronger while “compromising--aka losing--dissipates their power. Not winning is why the Democrats were able to peel off the seven Republican Social Democrats in spite of the fact Republicans have just knocked off Tom Daschle for his obstreperousness.

To get back on a winning track, there are two signal issues for which Republicans can, as Winston Churchill succinctly commanded, take “action this day”. One is for the president to veto the Highway Bill and the other is for Bill Frist to get a vote for all the president’s judicial nominees.

By rejecting the highway bill, the president shows his backbone to Congress and demonstrates that there are still three branches of government with checks and balances. It’s also a matter of principle; after all, he promised to veto any bill as large as the $295 billion, six-year spending plan the defiant lawmakers will send to him.

As his first veto, the president will create a powerful collateral benefit. At once, he will become the arbiter of the pork barrel projects that lard the highway bill. With that power, he can begin to discipline the errant members of his party and have some bait for waffling Democrats. This will prove useful in both the judicial debates and the tax wars that are coming later this year. If the president does this, the president will restock his political capital. If he doesn’t, then he depletes his influence even faster.

The other action that will help, not hurt, Republicans is to find a way to stand up to the remaining Senate Democrats (and the 7 “Democrat” Social Democrats) on judicial nominations. At this writing on Tuesday night, the Democrats are claiming the Nuclear Option is off the table. Harry Reid says “we never have to talk about it again”. In contrast, Republicans say they have preserved the option whenever two Social Democrats perceive the Democrats to be acting outside the compromise...

Restoring the threat or reality of the Nuclear Option would also be the best way for Senator Frist to separate himself from his potential rivals in 2008. Chief among them is John McCain, a demonstrated threat to American liberty and its Constitution. As one of the Social Democrats (nee Republican), his presidential ambition animates this mutiny.

But, by rising as one of the leaders of this new caucus, he achieves his social objective but simultaneously destroys his chances in 2008 because the Republican base can no longer ignore his real politics.

If, however, Frist goes along to get along with the Social Democrats, the party faithful will perceive him to be no better than McCain. If Frist accepts the compromise--especially during the battle for the Supreme Court--he will reveal that he does not have the toughness to deal with Congress as president, let alone defeat terrorists. This will hurt Frist’s chances especially as the retired senator he’ll be after the 2006 contest.

The “Democrat” Social Democrats, worried about reelection, have bolted to protect their sinecures but are probably still loyal to the Democrat party. But, if these folks get a taste of power that their new Caucus can generate, they may become a problem for Harry Reid and his second, Dick Durbin. By insisting on preserving the filibuster, the Democrats may have sown the seeds of real senatorial destruction.

The real winner in all this, regardless of whether Frist launches the Nuclear/Constitutional/Byrd option may be Senator George Allen of Virginia. A popular, term-limited governor in Virginia, Allen has the administrative experience and the reputation as a tax cutter Reagan Republicans believe best qualifies one for president. Allen immediately denounced the compromise on his Senate web site saying the deal is a “major disappointment on principle”.

Principle? What a fresh idea.

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Ralf Seiffe advises business start-ups and product launches from Chicago, Illinois and is a political analyst and columnist for the Illinois Leader.