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SEIFFE:  Statistics, Damn Statistics And Politicians

Friday, February 23, 2007

By Ralf Seiffe

One of the mystics of our democracy, Karen Yarborough, (Nanny, Maywood) told the State Journal-Register that eight people per day die of second-hand smoke in Illinois. She made this observation in support of her bill that would ban smoking in all Illinois workplaces including bars and tobacconists.  I am sure she believes this figure is true but a discriminating public should think twice.

First, let’s do the numbers.  Representative May says eight of our fellow citizens die from second hand smoke every day here in Illinois.  If the cause is second-hand smoke, then these unfortunates could not be victims of first-hand smoke, that is, they could not be smokers themselves.  Logically then, the second-hand smoke deaths would have to come from the 80% of the population that does not smoke.

If there are eight per day, then there are 2,920 Illinois fatalities from second-hand smoke every year, assuming the reaper works a 24/7/365 schedule. To put that number into context, there are about 1,400 traffic deaths every year on Illinois’ roads.  AIDS killed 489 in 2002, the last year for which Illinois’ records are searchable.

Let’s assume Illinois is an average state.  Since Illinois is about 4% of the total U.S. population, I calculate that the entire U.S. suffers about 73,000 second-hand smoke fatalities.

With this in mind, I checked the American Cancer Society’s web site for the national statistics on the most obvious disease one might get from smoking, lung cancer.  They report that 160,000 people die from lung cancer in the United States every year.  This is certainly enough of a toll to convince every smoker to give it up but apparently it is not.

In any event, there are some cases of lung cancer that are not due to smoking but the web site made it clear that such cases are rare. Accounting for lung cancer cases that were not smoking related would certainly reduce the total. We can agree with the Cancer Society that 15% of lung cancer cases are not due to smoking, so let’s reduce the nation’s 160,000 total victims by that number.  That would leave 136,000 lung cancer deaths caused by smoking.

So, the national number of second-hand smoking deaths--73,000--versus the total of all smoking related lung cancer deaths--136,000--means that second hand smoke victims account for more than half of all lung cancer deaths.  In other words, for every smoker who kills himself by directly inhaling, this analysis indicates their exhaust kills more than one other person!

This is not reasonable.  Either Representative May is overestimating the total deaths from second hand smoke or the analysis is wrong.  But even if it over estimates by 100%, it still says that for every two smokers who die from lung cancer, they will take one innocent soul with them. This still seems unreasonable.

The issue here is not whether smoking should be banned but the promiscuous use of “statistics” by the evidently innumerate. This analysis took all of ten seconds to make so why didn’t some reporter challenge the Representative to prove her claim?  Even more interesting is why Rep. May didn’t challenge the number herself. No doubt, some lobbyist supplied her with the number that eight die each day and because it suited her notion that smoking should be banned, she repeats it indiscriminately.

Beyond that, what other bogus numbers are our politicians using to convince us that we need to give up another little piece of freedom or justify higher taxes?  If they can get away with this whopper, what other damn statistics are they using?

If Republicans want to rise from the ashes, they might want to attack the "statistics" their opponents spew about homelessness, the uninsured, Attention Deficit Disorder, pensions and other big-ticket items.  Characterizing these phony numbers as just "smoke" and mirrors would be an excellent strategy. 

© 2007 Ralf Seiffe

Ralf Seiffe advises business start-ups and product launches from Chicago, Illinois and is a political analyst and columnist for the Illinois Leader and Illinois Review.

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