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Will there be an October Surprise in the Presidential race? Seiffe offers some nominations of possibilities.

Tuesday, October 26, 2004

 By Ralf Seiffe

Presidential politics has become such a long season that candidates are often well-served by creating some event that catches everyone’s attention, just before election day.

Pulling a stunt in the campaigns’ waning days can energize the base and depress one’s opponent’s supporters and, with deft timing, be as indefensible as a volleyball spike shot.

With a week to go in the contest, what might the candidates have up their sleeve? If they haven’t come up with their October surprises, here are some gratuitous suggestions.

Let’s start with John Kerry. He’ll need the most help because after a year of campaigning he’s already shot all the arrows he has in the quiver.

The relentless work of the 527’s and Kerry’s stumping have hammered the president’s character with the kind of accusations that would have made great material for an October Surprise.

As hard and expensively as they have tried, the official and guerilla Democrats have not damaged the president’s character even if they have been more successful in questioning his competence.

Whereas Al Gore had the instincts to wait until just the right moment to reveal George Bush’s DUI problem, the Kerry crew hasn’t demonstrated such discipline.

Given the relentless work of the Soros-type groups, it’s unlikely that the Kerry campaign can find some yet undiscovered character flaw. Without it, the type of character assassination Gore peddled is out.

Kerry can’t count on his natural media allies, either. Dan and Punch have already prostituted themselves with stories based on ginned documents or reruns of old news dressed up to mislead the gullible.

The real contest of opinion has moved on to new mediums that have broken the old monopolies so even if he had something, it might not be as effective as it might have been in the era of Cronkite.

Finally, even worse news for Kerry is that having positioned himself as an intelligent policy wonk, the electorate has an understandable expectation that he’ll be able to articulate his vision.

Kerry’s future perfect “I Have A Plan” answer to everything reminds us of Martin Luther King’s “I Have A Dream” opus except that King actually told us what the dream was. Since Kerry can’t meet that standard, he’s left with a whiny, complaining appeal that make Tad Devine look sunny.

The conclusion is that there is no Democrat October Surprise.

For the opposite side of the same reason, George Bush might have a choice of October surprises open to him. These range from attacks on the senator to much more profound action against the evident attempt the Democrats are making to hijack the election.

There is no need to attack John Kerry’s war record unless there is some huge secret in Kerry’s past or present.

The surrogate groups that torched Kerry, the Swift Boat Veterans specifically, have been much more effective than their Democrat rivals and have helped the president maintain voters’ confidence on national security.

Unless there is any truth to the growing suspicion that Kerry left the Navy with less than an Honorable Discharge, Kerry’s Viet Nam experience is a spent force.

Kerry’s behavior after returning home is fair game. Bush could, through similar surrogates, try the same trick Gore tried with the DUI story by focusing on the senator’s meeting with the Viet Cong.

Republicans could ask, legitimately, if Kerry is eligible to serve as President by terms of Section 3 of the Constitution’s XIV’s Amendment. The internet would be a perfect vehicle, filled with willing individuals, to launch this attack.

But, the most useful and powerful October Surprise would be for Bush to take on the Democrats’ plan to hijack the election.

Not only would it help win close states, it would energize the Republican base tired of the Democrats’ fabrications.

On Wednesday, the president could announce that it had come to his attention that there are 46,000 voters registered in both Florida and New York or that there are more registered voters in Columbus Ohio than there eligible adults and that he was sending in a Justice department task force to clean it up. Americans, especially Republicans, would cheer enforcement.

Cheaters and their cocaine suppliers would think again if they believed there was a serious chance of legal jeopardy. Arrests over the week-end, that is a pre-emptive strike against the Democrats, would be as effective, and justifiable, as the president’s foreign policy foundations.

One looks forward to an October Surprise and it appears that the president has more options. The question is will he have the political will to use them?

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Ralf Seiffe advises business start-ups and product launches from Chicago, Illinois and is a political analyst and columnist for the Illinois Leader.