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SEIFFE:  Positioning McCain To Beat Obama 

Monday, February 11, 2008

By Ralf Seiffe

Barack Obama’s weekend sweep combined with Hillary’s financial distress means he will probably win the Democrat nomination this summer. He’s capturing much of the Democrat base and just about half of the delegates. Worse, he shows an amazing talent for hoodwinking moderate Republicans into believing the morsels of specifics he reluctantly reveals are desirable “change.”  This presents a problem for Republicans who worry about how to battle the attractive Illinois Senator. One cannot help but share that concern but also believe success will come to Senator McCain and Republicans when they recognize that the reasons for “Obama infatuation” are also the keys to beating him. 

I am one of those conservatives who believes our liberties are diminished when liberals exercise power.  Their method is to create permanent dependencies so that we ratchet toward the sort of society that is the inescapable end product of socialism--tyranny.  It is a ratchet because we never recover our freedoms, once lost.  Since Senator McCain is so willing to subject our liberties to that liberal ratchet, I am not a fan.  Nevertheless, he will be our nominee and regardless of the radio commentators, he should be a better steward of power than either of his Democrat rivals.  We all understand why that is, or at least why it should be. 

The main reason for this conservative’s discomfort is the Senator’s gratuitous cooperation with brand-name Democrats on ill-advised legislation.  Yet, the Senator tells us he is a conservative and the chorus of establishment Republicans repeats that mantra.  The Senator’s appearance at CPAC quieted many conservatives when he appeared with an acceptable message late last week.  I’ll give the Senator the benefit of the doubt but he must make up with the conservative community--or at least two of its three legs--if he is to be competitive in November. 

Let’s assume he does come to an understanding with conservatives but that’s not enough.  He still has to convince moderates and Republicans who are toying with Obama to change their mind and vote for an old Republican.  To make that sale, he must offer an alternative to Obama that differentiates him in a way that offers a clear choice to voters in November yet keeps the base on board. 

In addition, the Senator must exploit the hundreds of hours of TV time, barrels of ink and an infinite quantity of electrons that have crossed the Internet to reinforce the idea that this election is about “change.”  Democrats think they have that concept cornered but, if Republicans recognize that Obama’s brand of change is merely the Great Society redux, they can fashion positions offering real political change and steal the initiative from the Democrats.   

The way to do this is to recognize that Obama’s proposals are as old as Harry S. Truman’s and as corrosive as Lyndon Johnson’s.  They have already been rejected by the majority of the American electorate.  Obama may have wrapped his ideas in free market platitudes, but he is still selling week-old fish. 

McCain will win if he exposes Obama’s wares and offers a more wholesome alternative.  As a conservative, the Senator’s history makes me wonder if he is even interested in making that case but if so, what might that healthier offering include? 

McCain’s vision of change must be attractive enough for conservatives to put aside their differences with the Senator and, at the same time, relevant enough for moderates to be stimulated.  Next, they must be optimistic and, simultaneously strike at the illogicality of the Left.  Finally, these ideas must be marketable; that is, they must be credible when presented by Senator McCain. 

McCain’s web site has many good ideas, but the minutia of the information and its very presentation reveals the mind of a Legislator, not a President.  Choosing a limited number of principles and policies with which to battle Obama will test the Senator’s capacity to become the nation’s chief executive.  A cohesive message of limited scope will demonstrate there is a difference between his approach and Obama’s laundry-list approach. 

If he distilled the huge amount of information on his web site to three central ideas and used them to inform voters, the likely nominee could begin a conversation with the electorate while the Democrats squabble.  Think of this strategy as a combination of Reagan’s three promises leavened with the gravity--and sex appeal---of Kennedy’s charge to put a man on the moon. 

So, at the risk of presuming too much, here’s what I would advise Senator McCain. 

First, promise to run for only one term.  This will instantly quell the far right’s incredibly wrong theory that they can sit this contest out and replace the forfeit in 2012.  It would placate the right because it would give them time to regroup after Bush.  It would also pre-empt the mainstream media when they begin to attack McCain’s age.  It would also allow a President McCain to enjoy his full feistiness for all four years because reelection wouldn’t be a consideration. 

On the other side, there are those who are attracted to Obama but believe he needs more experience.  Make the case that by serving only one term, President McCain is actually allowing Obama to get that experience and, at the same time, remain the Democrat front-runner for 2012. 

And one other thing--there is a life after the presidency.  Ask Bill Clinton or George H.W. Bush. 

Second, get control of the tax issue on conservative terms.  The old marginal rates playbook won’t work because Republicans have already succeeded. The opportunity to make major rate reductions are simply too limited. For their part, the other side will insist on letting the Bush cuts expire and this situation ostensibly limits the tax debate to small continuum of rates.  McCain should take the lead and focus not on tax rates but on structure of the tax system.  It could be positioned as the way to maintain our living standards because international competitors have reduced their taxes making the United States a very high tax nation, in comparison.  This could take the form of a very flat income tax and elimination of the AMT in its mildest form to adopting the Fair Tax, the one Governor Huckabee prefers.  McCain would not only capture the imagination of Middle America, it would, at the same time, nullify the funding the other side is counting on to finance their hair-brained schemes when the Bush tax cuts expire. 

From McCain’s viewpoint this sort of proposal should appeal because it instantly diminishes the K Street lobby’s raison d’etre. 

Finally:  the stretch recommendation.  If John McCain is a real conservative, let’s hear that message from him.  Let’s hear him articulate the logic behind most conservative positions and also hear him excoriate the Left’s disdain for liberty.  Let’s see him attack the Left’s unceasing assault on liberty.  If he did, I would become an enthusiastic supporter.  Many others--including Democrats--would too.

Ralf Seiffe advises business start-ups and product launches from Chicago, Illinois and is a political analyst and columnist for the Illinois Leader and Illinois Review.

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