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SEIFFE:  Delay Illinois' Primary

Thursday, March 22, 2007

By Ralf Seiffe

The conventionally wise hold that the primaries in early 2008 will decide the presidential nominees with certainty.  That explains the herd mentality here and in other states to move primaries from their traditional dates to as close to the head of the line as possible.  Democrats in Illinois, in an effort to “help” Barack Obama and to make the Illinois vote relevant, propose to follow Herr Governator’s California example and move our date up into the thick of the primary battle.  If these are their objectives, they are probably wrong.

By loading the front end of the primaries, candidates are forced to operate simultaneously on multiple fronts.  This takes exponentially more resources.  That’s why starting in New Hampshire made sense; it is a small state that takes its role of vetting candidates seriously.  Folks up there turn out to see and question the candidates so a candidate with even modest resources can compete in this small market.  Once the candidate achieves any measure of success in the New Hampshire snow, it’s on to Iowa, propelled by earned media into another serious state in which it is cheap to campaign.  Bill Clinton, the then the charming but unaccomplished governor of Arkansas proves the point and from reports, Obama has the cash to do New Hampshire at least as well.

Now consider the new primary schedule and map.  In the absence of a Star Trek transporter system, the candidate can’t be everywhere at once and must substitute purchased media in multiple markets.  California, Texas, New York and other states have set February 5th, 2008, as the “Super Tuesday” for next year’s contest.  These are the most expensive media markets in the nation.  Worse--at least for the candidate’s finance committees--Florida is threatening to move its primary to January 29th!  I haven’t checked but, assuming Illinois jumps in, this must be a collection of at least 30 T.V. coverage areas.

This is an advertising problem that presents an impossible challenge to all but the wealthiest candidates.  That means Hillary has the advantage because whatever problems defectors from her political mafia may cause, it’s hard to see how her rivals can overcome her war chest.  Unless Barack Obama catches up, this front end loading does nothing to help him unless he can round up the resources to financially compete.  Prior to campaign finance, Obama could have gone to his new best friends in Hollywood (i.e. the defectors) and collected several $5 million checks from the wealthy just as the last, truly left wing presidential candidate, George McGovern, did.  Too bad, Obama; by limiting hard money to small contributions, your party’s support of campaign finance laws has pulled up the ladder for your opportunity.

From another point of view, our Democrat friends use the same sort of static analysis in politics that they use when excoriating tax cuts.  Let’s assume the primary contest is “over” on February 5th when the top ten states--representing more than 30% of Americans--have voted.  That leaves nine months between that win and the general election.  If nothing changes, then no harm is done.  However, politics is dynamic and things change.  In fact, one could make the argument that presidential candidates do not rise to their calling but they are only one of a large body of ambitious politicians who have not eliminated themselves.   

Think back in history.  Alexander Hamilton eliminated himself by meeting with Aaron Burr.  More recently, Ed Muskie did not survive New England’s snows, collapsing when his wife was insulted.  Teddy Kennedy consented to an interview with Roger Mudd who asked why the Senator wanted to be president.  When Kennedy could not answer, he eliminated himself as a serious candidate for president. How about Howard Dean’s scream?   On the Republican side, John McCain will never be president because his curious assault on the First Amendment has eliminated him from consideration.  Rudy has not eliminated himself yet but, as knowledge of his prosecutorial intemperance in the 1980’s is revealed, he may yet suffer self-elimination. 

This theory of pachinko politics holds that people support their candidate without knowing much about them.  This is a natural consequence of the low level of interest in politics until the actual election looms and they begin to pay attention.  It is then that the hyper-scrutiny of New Hampshire and Iowa serve us best because in it, a candidate’s flaws are revealed.  In the new front-end loaded primary, Obama loses again; the candidate’s images will be created by advertising rather than in personal engagement of the New Hampshire sort.  Hillary is extemporaneously incompetent while, in comparison, Barack speaks in parables.  Advantage: Hillary because front-ending the primaries makes them non-spontaneous, media-driven campaigns.  That insulates her from that unpredictable episode in which she utters that deadly, non-scripted sound bite her enemies will use over and over to eliminate her.

So, Illinois lawmakers, think about this.  If you really want to help Obama, use some imagination.  Adding our voice to the crush of states on February 5th (or even in January) won’t really set the stage for Obama.  Hillary will win in most of those large states and even if Obama wins big in Illinois, no one will remember.  Instead, let’s recognize the dynamics of politics and visualize the voter regret that will build between February and say, June.  As Hillary is exposed as the klunk she is, (or Bill helps with one of his unique outrages) voters will want to find someone new.  Obama should keep hope alive and keep campaigning because winning a big state election just before the Democrat Convention will, in fact, choose him as the donkey candidate.  Let’s see, California used to have their primary in June--that’s perfect.  Let’s grab that date before someone else does.

© 2007 Ralf Seiffe

Ralf Seiffe advises business start-ups and product launches from Chicago, Illinois and is a political analyst and columnist for the Illinois Leader and Illinois Review.

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